National Trust Warns of a “Confused” Autumn
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After the summer we've just had, nobody expected autumn to behave itself. The National Trust's tree and garden experts have now put a name to it, predicting a season of "colour, contrast and confusion" as the effects of an exceptionally hot, dry summer play out across the country. For garden centres, that's a sign the usual seasonal playbook, from plant ordering to events and café menus, could do with a bit of a rethink.
Summer 2026 was provisionally the UK's warmest on record, with a mean temperature of 16.5°C and 621.9 hours of sunshine. All that sunshine is part of the reason the Trust thinks autumn colour could still be vibrant, even though some drought-stressed trees have already started shedding their leaves in what's being called a "false autumn".
What are the National Trust experts predicting?
In short, a lot of variety. According to the Trust's autumn predictions, at Cotehele in Cornwall autumn could arrive three to four weeks later than usual, while at Mount Stewart in County Down it appears to be running around three to four weeks ahead.
Luke Barley, Senior National Specialist in trees and woodland at the National Trust, said: "The coming weeks will be crucial. Autumn colour always depends on a combination of factors, but after such an extraordinary summer the usual signals are much harder to read. Climate change is making our seasons more unpredictable and we're going to learn more this year about the impact of drought on autumn colour."
There's also a stormy wildcard in the mix, with a potentially record-breaking El Niño raising the chances of wetter, windier weather later in the season. Graham Alderton, Head Gardener at Winkworth Arboretum in Surrey, said: "El Niño most strongly affects countries around the Pacific and in the tropics. But in the UK it's still likely to increase rainfall and storms that could be with us by November. That's optimistic news for autumn colour but still a concern considering what the trees have been through already this year."
Why does a "confused" season matter for garden centres?
Because your customers' gardens are going to be confused too. Across the Trust's 260 gardens, plants paused through the hottest weeks and are now responding to rain with fresh growth or even a second flush of flowers.
Bodnant's Head Gardener Ned Lomax said: "Many plants went into stasis over summer. If mild and wet conditions persist now, they might take advantage of the late opportunity to put on a growth spurt and to flower.”
"We could get a second flush from our herbaceous plants, out-of-season flowering and unusual combinations, like rhododendrons in flower and maples in autumn colour at the same time."
That means plenty of customers asking why their viburnum is flowering in October, and well briefed staff who can answer confidently are worth their weight in gold. It also makes the case for keeping wholesale plants orders a little more flexible, as regional timing could shift demand for autumn interest shrubs and bulbs by several weeks.
There's ground to make up too. The HTA reported that June garden centre sales dropped 2% year on year, with visits also down 2% as extreme heat and water restrictions kept people at home, so a colourful, talked about autumn is a real chance to win some of that footfall back.
How can garden centres turn an odd autumn into an experience?
Autumn colour is a destination in its own right, which is why people flock to places like Stourhead at this time of year. Garden centres can borrow from that with a weekly "what's turning now" board or a dedicated acer and specimen tree area, paired with premium wholesale pots and planters for creative retail display ideas that lift basket spend.
Pumpkins are another bright spot, having performed strongly at Wimpole and Sizergh despite the drought, and pumpkin patches and carving workshops bring in exactly the kind of family visit that tends to end in the café.
Where does food fit into an autumn like this?
The harvest story is just as mixed. At Cotehele, an apple crop that looked small and bitter during the drought recovered quickly after rain so its Apple Day could go ahead, while at Dyrham Park heavy summer fruit drop has left some trees with almost nothing to pick.
Seasonal menus built around squash, apples and local produce connect the plant area to the plate, and a harvest weekend can link fruit tree sales, preserves, cider and the café in one go. Catering keeps pulling its weight for the sector, with HTA data showing café and restaurant sales up 8% in February. If you're looking for new lines to sit alongside your seasonal plants, Glee's Food Hall sector is a good place to start.
What should buyers be planning for next year?
Extreme summers are no longer a one off. The Met Office found this summer was made around 130 times more likely by human-induced climate change, so sustainability and water-wise ranges need to sit at the heart of buying plans. That means drought-tolerant plants, mulches, water butts and smarter irrigation, all of which we covered in our piece on the £65m drought package. It also means building relationships with garden suppliers who can respond quickly when the season doesn't go to plan.
If you like what you've seen here, why not join us in-person for the retail event of the season? Glee runs from 6-8 September 2027 at the NEC, Birmingham. Register your interest here, and join our newsletter for the latest updates before the show.