UK garden centre sales increased by 6% in September 2026, with gardening categories showing signs of recovery following a challenging summer. However, cautious consumer spending, rising operating costs and ongoing weather pressures continue to create challenges for retailers. The latest Horticultural Trades Association (HTA) Market Update reveals that garden centre sales rose by 6% year on year in September, while gardening category sales increased by 11% compared with September 2025.

Overall sales were also 13% higher than in September 2024, suggesting a longer-term improvement despite the difficult trading conditions experienced throughout the summer. The recovery follows an exceptionally hot, dry summer, which affected gardening activity and consumer demand. Warmer-than-average temperatures in September may have encouraged customers to return to their gardens, extending the gardening season and supporting sales across several key categories.

However, the HTA has cautioned against interpreting September's performance as a full recovery, with gardening sales still behind 2025 levels year to date.

Hardy Plants and Shrubs Lead Sales Growth

Several gardening categories recorded positive year-on-year growth in September, with hardy plants, shrubs, trees and seeds performing particularly well. According to the HTA's latest figures:

• Hardy plants, shrubs, trees and seeds: Sales increased by 20%.

• Indoor plants: Sales rose by 11%.

• Bedding and other plants: Sales increased by 10%.

• Garden furniture: Sales edged up by 1%, although they remained 11% below September 2024.

• Barbecues and heating products: Sales declined by 8%.

The figures suggest that demand is returning across several core gardening categories, although performance varies considerably between product types. For garden centre retailers, this reinforces the importance of understanding changing seasonal demand and adapting product ranges accordingly. While some categories are benefiting from renewed gardening activity, others continue to face pressure, highlighting the need for careful stock planning and responsive merchandising.

Retailers can also explore the latest product innovations and emerging opportunities through Glee's New Product Awards, which showcase products designed to meet the evolving needs of garden retail.

Consumer Spending Remains Cautious

Despite the improvement in sales, wider economic conditions continue to influence purchasing decisions. The number of garden centre transactions, excluding catering, increased by 2% year on year in September. Meanwhile, the average transaction value rose by 5% to £22.20, excluding VAT. Catering also contributed to the month's performance, with café and restaurant sales increasing by 7%. This highlights the continuing importance of the wider garden centre experience alongside traditional gardening products.

However, the HTA warns that rising employment, fuel and supply chain costs are putting pressure on retailer margins. An increase in sales does not necessarily translate into higher profits, particularly when businesses are managing rising operating expenses.

Consumer confidence has improved for three consecutive months, reaching its highest level since August 2024. Nevertheless, it remains negative at -13, indicating that shoppers continue to approach spending cautiously. For retailers, balancing competitive pricing with profitability will remain a key consideration as the industry moves towards the end of the year.

Weather Continues to Shape Gardening Demand

Weather conditions remain an important influence on the sector's performance. September was the UK's fourth-warmest on record, with temperatures 1.7°C above the long-term average. Rainfall reached 104% of the long-term average, while sunshine levels were close to average. These conditions may have helped encourage gardening activity following the summer's extreme heat. However, the national figures mask regional differences and do not reflect the continuing impact of prolonged dry weather in affected areas.

The HTA also highlighted that Temporary Use Bans continued to affect around 30 million people. The Environment Agency estimates that rainfall will need to reach 120% of the average over the coming months for the country to be out of drought by spring. Water resilience therefore remains a significant concern for horticultural businesses, with the HTA calling for further investment in water storage and infrastructure to help businesses manage increasingly unpredictable conditions.

For retailers and suppliers, climate-related disruption reinforces the importance of considering resilience, product suitability and changing consumer needs when planning future ranges.

What Does This Mean for Garden Retailers?

Looking at the year to the end of September, overall garden centre sales were 2% higher than in 2025 and 12% higher than in 2024. However, excluding catering, sales were unchanged from the previous year, while gardening category sales remained 1% behind 2025. So although the September figures offer some encouragement, the data highlights an uneven recovery across the sector.

Retailers will need to remain responsive to changing demand, monitor category performance and carefully manage stock levels as they plan for the months ahead. Understanding which products are gaining momentum, alongside the wider factors influencing consumer spending, will be essential to making informed buying decisions. For suppliers, the results provide an opportunity to consider how product innovation, seasonal relevance and clear differentiation can help retailers respond to evolving customer needs.

Glee brings together garden retailers, manufacturers and suppliers to explore new products, discover emerging trends and build commercial relationships. Its New Product Awards offer a further insight into the innovations shaping the sector and the opportunities available to businesses preparing for future buying seasons. As the industry looks towards 2027, collaboration between retailers, brands and suppliers will remain important in identifying new opportunities and building resilient businesses.

While September's sales figures offer a welcome improvement, the longer-term outlook will depend on how effectively the sector navigates economic pressures, changing weather patterns and increasingly cautious consumers. For the garden retail industry, the priority is turning signs of recovery into sustained growth.